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BY BRIAN WILLIAMS
bwilliams@nwitimes.com
219.548.4348 | Tuesday, January 08, 2008 | (1 comment(s))
VALPARAISO | The forward creep of presidential primaries is limiting voters, says a Valparaiso University professor in advance of today's New Hampshire primaries.
With many primaries now bunched up early, voters are likely to be left with the best funded candidates or those who perform best in the two small states that go first, said political science professor Jennifer Hora.
The front loading also hurts candidates because they are expected to have fully fleshed out positions on every issue long before they would take office, Hora said.
And, if indeed, party standard bearers are locked in early next month, that leaves "10 months to dig up dirt and make someone look bad," she said.
Hora said it is "very unlikely" that the Republican winner in Iowa, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, will win in New Hampshire. Conservative Christians were a big part of his win in Iowa, but religion will be less of an issue for New Hampshire voters, Hora said.
In the same way, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's Mormon faith will not be seen as an issue, Hora predicted. But Romney also is unlikely to get any bump for being from a neighboring state, Hora said.
Surveys show Republicans to be less excited about their candidates than Democrats.
"Barack Obama seems to be the candidate people are excited for," Hora said. That popularity could skew results in the other race if Independents vote in large numbers in the Democratic primary and not in the Republican primary, she said.
Hora thinks it's much more likely the Democratic race than the Republican race will be over by Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when some 24 states will hold caucuses or primary elections. But she thinks both races will be decided after the results of Super Tuesday are in.
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Mark from Highland wrote on Jan 8, 2008 5:24 AM: