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BY ANDREA HOLECEK
holecek@nwitimes.com
219.933.3316 | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 | (No comments posted.)
As Thanksgiving approaches and cooks begin planning the celebratory feast, turkey makes its annual appearance in every grocery advertisement, in every supermarket and on almost every menu.
Poultry producers have been preparing the holiday's piece de resistance for at least six months; raising, dressing and shipping the turkeys to local retailers in time for the American food and family celebration.
Turkeys are traditionally priced below cost to attract shoppers through fowl deals. Grocers have been deciding how low to set turkey prices to control their losses while remaining competitive. Most will be announcing their Thanksgiving turkey prices Monday, said Carl Lindsey, meat director for the 20-store Strack & Van Til chain.
Retailers and processors made their deals months ago, said Sherrie Rosenblatt, spokeswoman for the National Turkey Federation.
"Retail prices are all over the place," she said. "But they have no relationship to reality."
In October 2004, the average producer price was 48.1 cents a pound. In 2005, the average October producer price climbed to 52.9 cents. Currently, the average U.S. wholesale price for frozen hen and tom turkeys is 82 cents a pound, but the retail price of the Thanksgiving turkey could be half that amount.
"The average producer price for the year is definitely higher," said David Harvey, agricultural economist with the Economic Research Service, an agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And wholesale prices have jumped 5 percent to 7 percent above fourth-quarter 2004 levels, Harvey said.
Indiana ranks as the seventh largest U.S. turkey-producing state. Illinois is a minor producer.
U.S. producers were restricted from shipping chicken and turkey to certain countries during the first half of 2004 because there had been minor outbreaks of non-pathogenic varieties of avian flu, Harvey said. Without those exports, there was a larger turkey supply for the domestic market, which depressed prices.
"The restrictions have been lifted in the first half of '05, and exports were 40 percent higher than in the same period in 2004," Harvey said.
The good news for consumers is the bad news for grocers: During the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday season, there isn't any correlation between the wholesale price of frozen turkeys and the retail price.
"There little connection because of the heavy discounting retailers do on frozen turkeys," Harvey said.
Thus for grocers, frozen turkeys are a hot item even though they're not a particularly profitable one. Their value is in the number of people they attract, Lindsey said.
Priced as a "loss leader" aimed at bringing consumers into the store, turkeys can be a great bargain during the holiday period, said Strack's Lindsey, whose his stores take an average loss of 40 cent per pound on each bird they sell, meaning they are selling 40 cents a pound below what they cost the retailer.
Even at Thanksgiving, fresh turkey prices reflect the actual market price with many more than $2 per pound.
Juanita Kocanda, spokeswoman for Jewel Food Stores, said the chain doesn't discuss its marketing techniques or pricing. However, Jewel, which is the Midwestern division of Boise, Idaho-based Albertson's, is experiencing small but recordable annual increases in the number of fresh birds it sells.
"It happens right before Thanksgiving," Kocanda said. "People want a fresh bird, or they don't have the time or space to defrost one."
No fear of the bird flu?
Industry says domestic turkeys aren't threatened by deadly flu bug, according to the National Turkey Federation. Several firewalls exist to protect U.S. flocks from the Asian form (called "type Z") of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. They include:
• The United States has never imported poultry products from Southeast Asia, and since the Asian flu crisis erupted, the U.S. government also has prohibited the importation of live birds or other potential carriers of avian flu.
• Scientists are routinely checking migratory birds in Alaska and along the West Coast to look for signs that wild birds might carry the virus to the United States. More than 12,000 samples have been collected, with no indication that avian flu is moving via that route.
• Human beings are considered a possible vector, and the industry has adopted a policy identical to that of the U.S. government, that no one who has been to an area where the "Asian flu" is present should set foot on a U.S. poultry farm for at least seven days after his or her return to the country. In case a person is inadvertently carrying the virus on his shoes or clothing, the virus will die during that period.
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